Details
Xugong New Energy Mining Hybrid Excavator XE650GKHEV debuted.
■ Huo Yue, reporter of China Industrial Daily
With the release of the annual sales data of excavators in 2024, the downward trend of the domestic market for three consecutive years has been reversed, and China's construction machinery industry is expected to usher in an upward cycle.
According to the data released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association a few days ago, in 2024, major domestic excavator manufacturers sold a total of 2011,131 units, an increase of 3.13% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 100,543 units, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year; the export volume was 100,588 units, down 4.24% year-on-year. As the "barometer" of the construction machinery industry, excavator sales will stop falling and rebound in 2024, ending the continuous downward trend and releasing positive signals.
"Looking forward to 2025, the domestic excavator sales are expected to maintain a growth of about 10%; in terms of the export market, the moderate economic recovery of major regions in 2025, the decline in excavator sales is expected to narrow significantly." Zhou Ershuang, an analyst of Dongwu Securities, said.
The warmth is strong, and the industry may face an upward cycle.
Since March 2024, the industry has been warming up. The growth rate of domestic excavator sales began to return to positive growth and maintained month by month. Overseas market sales resumed positive growth in November and December 2024, and the growth rate remained in double digits.
The construction machinery industry is a strong cyclical industry. The cycle is mainly affected by changes in demand such as downstream real estate, infrastructure, exports, etc., as well as its own equipment update cycle, environmental protection and emission policies and other factors. The average cycle of the construction machinery industry is about 8-10 years. The latest round of upward cycle starts in 2016 and ends in the first half of 2021, followed by a three-year downward cycle.
According to the data, from 2021 to 2023, the total sales volume of excavators of major domestic excavator manufacturers has decreased year after year, to 342,800 units, 261,300 units and 195,000 units respectively. Among them, the domestic annual sales volume was 274,400 units, 151,900 units and 89,000 units respectively, down 6.32%, 44.6% and 40.8% year-on-year respectively; the overseas annual sales volume was 68,400 units, 109,500 units and 105,000 units respectively; the year-on-year increase of 97%, 59 .8%, -4.04%.
Since March 2024, the industry has been warming up. The growth rate of domestic excavator sales began to return to positive growth and maintained month by month. Overseas market sales resumed positive growth in November and December 2024, and the growth rate remained in double digits.
According to the statistics released by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in December 2024, major domestic excavator manufacturing enterprises sold 19,369 excavators of all kinds, an increase of 16% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 9312 units, an increase of 22.1% year-on-year; the export volume was 10,057 units, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year.
"From the perspective of the domestic market, the growth rate continues to exceed expectations mainly due to the high boom of water conservancy engineering and mines, which corresponds to the good demand for small and large excavations; exports mainly benefit from the completion of inventory removal, and the demand in some areas (typically the Indonesian market) has warmed up significantly." Zhou Ershuang analyzed that.
In terms of start-up, statistics show that in December 2024, the average monthly working time of major domestic construction machinery products was 93.9 hours, down 2.91% month-on-month, including 91.5 hours for excavators, with a monthly start-up rate of 68.3%.
Excavator sales are the weather vane that reflects economic changes such as infrastructure construction and observation of fixed asset investment. In 2024, although the industry is still in the middle of the cycle, there are more and more signs of improvement and recovery.
In addition, the sales of loaders will also achieve positive growth in 2024, among which the decline in domestic sales will narrow. According to the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in 2024, major domestic loader manufacturers sold a total of 108,209 types of loaders, an increase of 4.14% year-on-year. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 54,326 units, down 3.94% year-on-year; the export volume was 53,883 units, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year.
Guokai Securities mentioned in the research report that since 2024, with the support of the large-scale equipment renewal policy, the demand for the earthmoving machinery industry represented by excavators has gradually bottomed out and rebounded, while cranes, lifting work platforms and other products have been dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate investment, and the market demand is still sluggish. With the continuous coordination of a series of stock policies and incremental policies, infrastructure investment is expected to rise steadily, real estate investment is expected to stabilize, and the overall demand for domestic construction machinery is expected to improve marginally.
Digging the increment, the global industrial layout accelerates
The domestic market has entered the stock era, and the increase of domestic enterprises in construction machinery is the market share of overseas competitors. In recent years, with the significant increase in the localization rate of core components, domestic manufacturers have the ability to compete with overseas giants.
Although the total sales volume of excavators in 2024 exceeded 200,000 units, compared with previous years, it is not difficult to find that the domestic sales volume decreased from the "peak" of 274,400 units in 2021 to 100,000 units in 2024, and the external sales volume increased from 68,400 units in the same period to 100,000 units in 2024.
At the same time, the export value of construction machinery will continue to grow positively in 2024, and the overseas market is still the focus of the future layout of construction machinery enterprises. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from January to December 2024, China's export value of construction machinery was 52.859 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.87% year-on-year.
The domestic market has entered the stock era, and the increase of domestic enterprises in construction machinery is the market share of overseas competitors. In recent years, with the significant increase in the localization rate of core components, domestic manufacturers have the ability to compete with overseas giants.
Judging from the performance of listed companies, many leaders in the construction machinery sector continue to accelerate the global industrial layout, the profitability continues to improve, and the weight of overseas markets is gradually surpassing that of domestic markets. In 2024, Xugong Machinery (000425. SZ) Net profit of 5.309 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 9.71% year-on-year; Sanyi Heavy Industry (600031. SH) Net profit of 4.868 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 19.66% year-on-year; Zhonglian Heavy Technology (000157. SZ) Net profit in the same period was 3.139 billion yuan, an increase of 9.95% year-on-year.
Xugong Machinery takes internationalization as the only way to cross the industry cycle, build a century-old store, and build a world-class enterprise. Accelerate the internationalization strategy, actively develop overseas markets, and further improve the global industrial layout, covering more than 190 countries and regions. The relevant person in charge of the company introduced that international revenue accounted for 46.6% of the operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of about 9% year-on-year.
Zhonglian Heavy Technology also submitted a satisfactory answer in the overseas business. According to the data, the company's overseas revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.644 billion yuan, an increase of 35.42% year-on-year. The significant increase in the proportion of overseas revenue and the proportion of emerging sectors has made the company have more channels of income and profit sources, stronger stability and higher quality, and the resilience and momentum of the sustainable development of the enterprise continue to be enhanced. At the same time, the regional distribution of overseas revenue is more and more diversified, the local layout is more perfect, and the products are more abundant. People related to Zhonglian Heavy Technology said.
As a leader in the bulldozer industry, Shantui Co., Ltd. (000680. SZ) Continue to expand domestic and foreign markets and promote the local operation of overseas markets. At present, Shantui Co., Ltd. has established overseas subsidiaries in Russia, the United States, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Belgium and other places, and its overseas business revenue has increased significantly. Up to now, overseas revenue has accounted for more than 55%.
In addition, Liu Gong (000528. SZ) has become an international enterprise that produces and manufactures national heavyweights in the field of major infrastructure construction, and has embarked on a distinctive path in overseas business. The company currently has more than 30 overseas subsidiaries and institutions, 4 overseas manufacturing bases, and more than 500 dealers to provide products and services to more than 170 countries and regions. The proportion of Liugong's overseas revenue has continued to increase, which has become the core driving force for performance growth in recent years, effectively balancing the fluctuations of the industry cycle. The relevant person in charge of the company said.
"The profit source of this round of construction machinery cycle has changed significantly compared with the previous cycle (2016-2021)." In Zhou Ershuang's view, the profit of the last cycle mainly relies on the scale effect brought about by sales expansion to equalize costs and achieve higher profit margins. However, the demand for core downstream infrastructure real estate in this cycle continues to shrink, and the scale effect is not obvious. The core of each company focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, controlling risks, and improving profits through cost control and structural improvement. Rate.
Promote development, and the policy combination will continue to exert its strength.
At present, although China's economic operation is facing many difficulties and challenges, thanks to the timely introduction of a package of policies such as "two double" and "two new", the government's investment has continued to develop, the amplification effect has continued to emerge, the economic operation has rebounded significantly, and the high-quality development of the construction machinery industry has been promoted.
In the "No. 18 Factory" of Sanyi Heavy Industry located in Changsha, Hunan Province, based on the Shugen Interconnection Industrial Internet Platform, the big data of millions of excavators, lifting equipment, concrete machinery and other equipment all over the country are gathered into a real-time updated "excavator index". Through the big screen, the latest "excavator index" reflects the pulse of China's infrastructure and maps the vitality of investment.
In 2024, among all kinds of machinery and equipment, the "labor model" number of cranes, crawler cranes, tower cranes and other lifting equipment, the start-up rate will reach 72.91%, ranking first in the list of large categories of equipment; the start-up rate of excavation equipment is 58.87%, ranking second; the start-up rate of engineering equipment is 54.21%, ranking The third place. Among them, the start-start rate of lifting equipment is more than 60% for 11 months throughout the year, and more than 70% from March to March 2024.
From a national perspective, the comprehensive start-up rate of construction machinery in 23 provinces will exceed 50% in 2024, among which the start-up rate of Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hainan, Hubei, Sichuan, Fujian, Chongqing, Guangdong and other provinces and cities will exceed 60%.
Investment is an important tool to expand domestic demand. At present, although China's economic operation is facing many difficulties and challenges, thanks to the timely introduction of a package of policies such as "two double" and "two new", the government's investment has continued to develop, the amplification effect has continued to emerge, the economic operation has rebounded significantly, and the high-quality development of the construction machinery industry has been promoted.
"Since the end of September 2024, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have launched a package of incremental policies in response to the new situation and new problems in economic operation, while effectively implementing the stock policy, to promote the significant improvement of market expectations and the accumulation of positive factors for the economy." Su Zimeng, president of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, pointed out that the construction machinery industry strives to seize development opportunities and actively respond to changes in the domestic and foreign market environment. The industrial base of the whole industry has been greatly improved and the level of industrial chain modernization, major technical and equipment achievements have been fruitful, and product quality and user satisfaction have continued to rise. Green Manufacturing, green products and green construction are promoted in an orderly manner. In particular, the global service capacity of enterprises has been further enhanced, and the export value has reached a record high year-on-year.
She Weichao, an analyst of Caitong Securities, also believes that domestic demand is gradually improving marginally. First of all, the new demand is expected to stabilize, the real estate sector is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize, the investment in infrastructure fixed assets will continue to increase, rural and water conservancy projects will continue to develop, the countercyclical adjustment effect of infrastructure investment will continue to be highlighted, and the pulling effect on the construction machinery industry is expected to gradually emerge.
Secondly, the demand for renewal is expected to be gradually launched. According to the eight-year equipment service life cycle, the construction machinery industry is expected to usher in a new round of renewal peak in 2025, and the dawn of renewal demand is emerging.
In addition, benefiting from the successive introduction of domestic environmental protection and other policies, domestic construction machinery OEMs have successively increased the layout of electrified products, and the electrification rate of products continues to increase. The application field of construction machinery products continues to expand, the trend of machine generation is becoming more and more obvious, and the demand for small digging and other equipment continues to recover.
Looking to the future, Su Zimeng said that in 2025, the country will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and play a good policy "combination punch". With the increase of macro-regulation, the favorable factors to support the stable operation and high-quality development of the industry will continue to increase, and the development environment of the construction machinery industry will continue to improve.
