Since 2025, the excavator industry has shown an obvious recovery trend, with a cumulative sales volume of 101,716 units from January to May, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; among them, domestic sales of 57,501 units and export of 44,215 units, an increase of 25.7% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively. However, the excavator market also has a hidden turning point. The increase in domestic sales has fallen for three consecutive months since reaching a peak of 99.4% in February, and a year-on-year decline of 1.48% in May. Behind this violent fluctuation, it reflects the complex game of the industry in policy-driven, demand overdraft and cycle conversion.
I. Domestic excavator market
Since this year, the sales of excavators have continued the growth trend of the second half of last year. The main reason for the large increase is that the domestic excavator market has shown a positive trend under the promotion of the country's effective implementation of stock policies and the launch of a package of incremental policies.
In fact, in the past two years, the requirement of equipment renewal has become an important factor affecting the sales of excavators. The last round of upward cycle of construction machinery was from 2015 to 2023. According to the 8-10-year cycle of excavators, a new round of renewal cycle is expected to start from 2025 to 2026, and 2025 will become the key node for the centralized replacement of inventory equipment.
The promotion of the policy has also injected a strong impetus into the excavator market. The state effectively implements the stock policy, launches a package of incremental policies, and vigorously supports infrastructure construction and new rural construction. In terms of infrastructure construction, roads, bridges, water conservancy and other projects have been put into progress, and the demand for excavators has increased significantly. In the construction of new rural areas, house renovation in rural areas, the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities, etc. have also increased the demand for small excavators of less than 20 tons, and the sales volume has increased significantly. Coupled with the impact of environmental protection and subsidy policies, many institutions are optimistic about the sales of domestic excavators this year.
Stimulated by the above-mentioned multiple factors, the overall excavator market has shown an upward trend since this year. From January to May, the sales of excavators increased by 17.4% year-on-year, of which the domestic market increased by 25.7% year-on-year. Combined with the intensive start of infrastructure projects after the Spring Festival and the low base of the same period last year, the year-on-year growth of domestic sales in February reached an amazing 99.4%.
However, the domestic excavator market is not smooth sailing. Judging from the change of single-month growth rate, it has been declining since reaching a peak of 99.4% in February, from March to May to 28.5%, 16.4% and -1.48% respectively. From 99.4% to -1.48%, what are the reasons for the change in domestic sales of excavators?
The domestic sales of excavators in May were lower than expected, mainly due to the high increase in sales at the beginning of the year, which led to overdraft in demand, and the weakening of the start-up rate of construction machinery affected the confidence of the demand side. According to statistics, the average monthly working time of major products of construction machinery in May was 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year-on-year and 6.25% month-on-month; the monthly start-start rate was 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year-on-year and 2.45 percentage points month-on-month. In addition, due to the certain impact on equipment sales in some domestic regions in 2024 by raising emission standards, the domestic excavator sales base from May to June 2024 will be relatively high, the superposition industry will gradually enter the off-season, and the growth rate of domestic excavator sales in May will turn negative.
However, although the sales of domestic excavators decreased year-on-year in May, there has been a marginal trend in real estate and infrastructure construction since this year. At the same time, with the support of policies, the demand for renewal is expected to accelerate, and the annual domestic sales of excavators are expected to maintain growth.
II. Exports are under pressure but the economy continues
While the growth rate of domestic sales of excavators declined, exports have always maintained positive growth. From January to May, a total of 44,215 excavators were exported, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, accounting for 43.5% of the total. At the same time, the amount of exports has also achieved leapfrog growth. In the first quarter alone, China's excavator exports reached 2.27 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.1% year-on-year. It reflects the competitive advantage of Chinese excavator products in terms of technological innovation and category richness.
Despite the brilliant export performance of excavators this year, factors such as the uncertainty of national tariff policies, exchange rate fluctuations and regional trade barriers still pose a potential threat to the development of the industry. Especially in the European and American markets, although the decline is gradually narrowing, the rise of trade protectionism may limit the further expansion of the market.
However, we don't have to worry too much. On the one hand, the United States accounts for less than 10% of China's overall export market for construction machinery, and the proportion is not high; on the other hand, in the future, the export of construction machinery is supported by the demand of emerging market countries and the logic of supply and demand of domestic old machinery exports.
From the demand side, the demand of emerging markets represented by Latin America, India and Africa is relatively stronger, especially the rapid urbanization rate of the Belt and Road countries has become the core position of China's excavator exports. In the first quarter, China's exports to 149 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative reached 1.741 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.7% year-on-year, accounting for 76.73% of total exports. From the supply side, China's construction machinery has exceeded 12 million units, and with the promotion of domestic equipment renewal cycle and environmental protection policies, it has sufficient supply for remanufacturing and refurbishing exports to Southeast Asia and other regions. The export of old machines to Southeast Asian and African countries is expected to pull the domestic demand for new machine replacement and drive OEMs. Performance.
Based on the above trends, the boom in the excavator export market is sustainable, and the second half of the year may be a growth engine.
III. Electric excavator: thunder and heavy rain are small
It is also worth mentioning that 113 electric excavators were sold from January to May this year, exceeding the total sales volume of 86 sets in 2024, and the growth rate is not fast.
Electrification is an important trend in the construction machinery industry. With the advantages of zero emissions, low noise and high efficiency, electric excavators are moving from a policy-driven budding period to a market-dominated incremental period. Especially in the domestic market, many places have introduced policies such as subsidies for the purchase of electric engineering machinery and support for the construction of charging facilities. For example, Shenzhen gives 30% purchase subsidies for pure electric excavators, and Beijing requires government investment projects to give priority to the procurement of new energy equipment, which directly reduces the cost of users and improves market acceptance.
At the same time, major enterprises have also actively launched electric excavator products and gradually opened up the market situation. In February, Xugong XE215EV pure electric excavators were delivered to a large domestic steel group in batches, and in April, Sanyi SY870E super-tonnage electric excavators were delivered in batches to a large coal mine, and so on.
However, compared with the total sales of 101716 excavators in the first five months of this year, the sales of 113 electric excavators is less than a small part, accounting for only 0.11%, which can be said to be a thunderstorm. Therefore, despite the bright future of electric construction machinery, we still need to wait for the opportunity when electric excavators can become the growth engine of the industry.
In 2025, the excavator market will show the characteristics of "domestic sales fluctuate, exports are stable, and electrification starts". The domestic market still has growth potential under the support of policies and updated demand, but it is necessary to be wary of the impact of demand overdraft and weak start-up rate; exports rely on emerging markets and the "Belt and Road" to continue to develop, or become a growth engine in the second half of the year; although the growth rate of electrification is significant, the current scale is still small, and the real transformation of the industry still needs time to check. Check. On the whole, the excavator market nurtures new opportunities in the midst of challenges, and structural adjustment will become the main line of future development.
